Selected Projects
Our projects bring together economics, environmental science, spatial analysis, and policy in different ways depending on the question at hand.
The examples below provide a closer look at Ceto’s role, approach, and the information we develop to support planning and decision-making.
The Socioeconomic Value of Urban Stormwater Capture
California Stormwater Quality Association (CASQA) 2023–2024
Ceto worked with the California Stormwater Quality Association to better understand the benefits of urban stormwater capture that are often left out of traditional infrastructure evaluations. While the value of captured water and avoided flood damage can be relatively straightforward to quantify, projects can also create substantial benefits through improved water quality, new greenspace and wetlands, recreation, and community health. Ceto developed a framework to put economic values on those less visible benefits so they could be considered alongside more traditional project costs and benefits.
The work combined an extensive literature review, a statewide survey of CASQA members, GIS analysis, and economic valuation of four representative California stormwater projects. The analysis also considered environmental vulnerability and how project benefits may be greater in communities with limited access to greenspace and other public amenities. Across the four case studies, the estimated annual socioeconomic benefits alone exceeded stated project costs, demonstrating the importance of considering the full range of public benefits when evaluating stormwater investments.
Services: Economic valuation · Benefit-cost analysis · GIS · Survey research · Environmental justice · Infrastructure planning
San Clemente Fiscal Resilience Strategy
City of San Clemente
2024
Ceto worked with the City of San Clemente to evaluate how the City could fund long-term coastal resilience investments, including beach nourishment and shoreline infrastructure. The City’s coastal planning identified a substantial need for reliable local funding over the coming decades, while existing general fund revenues were not sufficient to cover those costs. Ceto’s role was to identify and compare locally controlled funding strategies that could support adaptation while considering who pays, who benefits, and how stable each revenue source would be over time.
The analysis modeled three primary approaches: a special property tax through a Climate Resilience District, a real estate transfer tax, and a local sales tax increase. Ceto compared the revenue potential, reliability, equity implications, and practical trade-offs of each option and recommended a flexible approach that could combine multiple funding tools. The work gave the City a clearer picture of how different financing mechanisms could support long-term resilience while balancing fiscal needs with community impacts.
Services: Fiscal analysis · Adaptation finance · Revenue modeling · Climate resilience · Equity analysis · Policy support
Broad Beach Nourishment
Economic Valuation
Malibu, California
2022
Ceto was engaged by attorneys representing Broad Beach homeowners to evaluate the public benefits associated with a proposed beach nourishment and dune restoration project in Malibu. A central question was how much of the project’s value would benefit the broader public, rather than only adjacent beachfront property owners. That distinction was important to understanding how project costs and benefits should be allocated under California’s Proposition 218 framework.
Ceto evaluated recreational and ecological benefits using coastal engineering projections, GIS analysis, and estimates of how placed sand could benefit adjacent public beaches over time. The analysis found that the project could generate substantial public value through expanded recreational opportunities and restored dune habitat, with benefits extending beyond Broad Beach itself. The work provided an independent economic perspective on the balance between private and public benefits associated with large-scale shoreline restoration.
Services: Economic valuation · Recreational value · Ecological benefits · GIS · Coastal adaptation · Regulatory support
Stinson Beach Adaptation & Resilience
Marin County, California / ESA
2024-2025
Ceto supported the Stinson Beach Adaptation and Resilience Collaboration by evaluating the economic and socioeconomic consequences of sea-level rise, coastal flooding, and potential adaptation pathways. Building on ESA’s hazard modeling, Ceto estimated impacts to private property, recreational access, and local fiscal revenues, while also examining how those risks would affect affordable housing and other vulnerable residents.
The work combined parcel-level property data, flood depth-damage methods, recreational carrying-capacity analysis, non-market valuation, and demographic and equity analysis. Ceto also evaluated the economics of potential adaptation pathways and funding mechanisms, including Climate Resilience Districts and Geological Hazard Abatement Districts, to help inform the community’s broader Adaptation Roadmap.
Services: Climate risk analysis · Property damage assessment · Recreational valuation · Fiscal analysis · Equity analysis · Adaptation finance
Santa Barbara Airport Climate
Vulnerability Assessment
City of Santa Barbara, California / ESA
2024-2025
As part of a broader climate vulnerability assessment for Santa Barbara Airport, Ceto evaluated the economic consequences of future flooding and sea-level-rise-related disruptions. The analysis focused on how runway flooding and airport closures could affect passengers, airlines, airport revenues, and general aviation, giving planners a clearer picture of the financial implications of increasing climate risk.
Ceto used FAA-aligned methods, historical storm and closure data, current flight information, and projected airport operations to estimate the costs of delays, cancellations, and operational disruptions over time. A follow-on environmental justice analysis also examined how airport employees, visitors, and vulnerable communities could be affected by coastal hazards, using demographic and geospatial data to support more equitable adaptation planning.
Services: Climate risk analysis · Economic loss modeling · Transportation economics · Environmental justice · GIS · Adaptation planning
Dauphin Island Fiscal & Climate
Adaptation Analysis
Mobile Bay National Estuary Program, Alabama
2021-2022
Ceto prepared the fiscal impact analysis for the Dauphin Island Watershed Management Plan, examining how different land-use and infrastructure strategies could affect the Town’s long-term financial resilience. The project considered the fiscal consequences of continued development alongside alternatives emphasizing conservation, habitat protection, stormwater management, and strategic retreat from higher-risk areas.
Using parcel-level property data, local tax structures, municipal service costs, and projected development patterns, Ceto compared the revenues and public costs associated with alternative future scenarios. The analysis showed how conservation-oriented strategies could support long-term fiscal sustainability by limiting infrastructure expansion costs and reducing exposure to storm and flood damage, while still allowing targeted investments in public access, recreation, and managed growth.
Services: Fiscal impact analysis · Land-use planning · Climate adaptation · Scenario analysis · Infrastructure economics · Resilience planning
California Beach Resiliency Plan (CBRP)
Ocean Protection Council / UC Santa Barbara
2024-2027
The California Beach Resiliency Plan is a statewide, multidisciplinary effort to help communities understand how California’s beaches are changing and how they can remain resilient as sea levels rise. Funded by the California Ocean Protection Council and led by UC Santa Barbara, the project is examining beaches as interconnected social and ecological systems, bringing together geophysical conditions, ecology, public access and recreation, economics, social equity, and Tribal cultural values. The project will develop beach “snapshots” for all 20 coastal counties, along with local decision guidance and statewide policy recommendations.
Ceto is part of the interdisciplinary project team, contributing expertise in socioeconomic analysis, beach use and recreation, public access, and economic value. Our work helps connect the physical vulnerability of California’s beaches with the people and communities that depend on them, so that future resilience strategies consider not only where beaches may be lost or transformed, but also what those changes mean for access, recreation, equity, and public benefit.
Services: Socioeconomic analysis · Public access · Recreation and beach use · Economic valuation · Equity analysis · Statewide resilience planning
Los Angeles County Coastal Resilience & Shoreline Management
LA County Department of Beaches and Harbors / Coastal Frontiers
2024-2027
Ceto is supporting Los Angeles County’s long-term coastal resilience program by bringing economic, recreational, and public-benefit considerations into shoreline planning and project design. The work began with feasibility analyses of beach nourishment and dune restoration alternatives at Zuma, Redondo, and Dockweiler beaches and has expanded into a countywide effort to help identify where resilience investments can provide the greatest public benefit.
Ceto’s analyses combine beach visitation, recreational value, shoreline change, habitat, public access, environmental justice, and exposure of infrastructure and property to help compare needs and opportunities across the County’s beaches. The team has also developed screening tools to support project prioritization and is continuing to provide economic and benefit-cost analysis for demonstration projects at Zuma Beach, Point Dume, and Westward Beach as designs move forward.
Services: Economic valuation · Benefit-cost analysis · Recreation and visitor use · GIS and spatial analysis · Project prioritization · Coastal resilience planning
San Clemente Beach Visitation, Access & LCP Planning
City of San Clemente, California
2025-2026
Ceto is working with the City of San Clemente to develop a clearer picture of how people use the City’s beaches and how future shoreline change may affect recreation and coastal access. The project combines beach attendance observations with anonymized mobility data to examine visitation patterns, where visitors come from, how long they stay, and how use varies across different parts of the coastline.
Ceto is integrating those visitation patterns with demographic, environmental justice, and economic data to evaluate access equity, visitor spending, local fiscal benefits, and the recreational carrying capacity of San Clemente’s beaches. The analysis also considers how sea-level rise and erosion could reduce future beach capacity and how those changes may inform the City’s Local Coastal Program, adaptation planning, and strategies for maintaining coastal recreation opportunities over time.
Services: Visitor-use analysis · Mobility data · GIS · Environmental justice · Economic impact analysis · Sea-level-rise planning
Monterey County Overnight Accommodation Market Analysis
Monterey County, California
2025
Ceto evaluated the availability, affordability, and geographic distribution of overnight accommodations in Monterey County, with a focus on how lodging supply affects equitable coastal access. The analysis compared hotels and motels with short-term rentals and examined how each type of accommodation serves different visitor groups, particularly families and lower- and moderate-income travelers.
The work combined visitor-demand data, lodging prices, guest capacity, spatial analysis, and the local regulatory context to assess where accommodation supply falls short and how policy changes could affect access to the coast. Ceto also examined the availability of lower-cost accommodations and the role that different lodging types play in meeting seasonal and weekend demand, providing a data-driven foundation for local planning and Coastal Act policy decisions.
Services: Market analysis · Coastal access · Affordability analysis · Visitor demand · GIS · Policy analysis
California Coastal Accommodation & Access Analyses
Selected California Coastal Communities
2025-2026
Ceto has conducted a series of market and socioeconomic analyses examining how the availability and affordability of overnight accommodations affect access to California’s coast. The work addresses an important but sometimes overlooked part of coastal access: for people who live too far away for a day trip, the ability to visit the coast can depend heavily on whether reasonably priced lodging is available near the shoreline.
Across these projects, Ceto has analyzed hotels, motels, short-term rentals, visitor demand, pricing, guest capacity, and the geographic distribution of accommodations. The analyses combine lodging-market data with anonymized visitation data, GIS, demographic information, and coastal policy to evaluate how regulatory changes may affect accommodation supply, affordability, and overnight access. This work helps clients and decision-makers consider visitor-serving accommodations as part of the broader conversation about equitable coastal access.
Services: Market analysis · Coastal access · Accommodation affordability · Visitor demand · GIS · Regulatory and policy analysis
California Beach Visitation & Coastal Access
California Coastal Commission
2026
Ceto analyzed statewide beach visitation to better understand who uses California’s beaches, where visitors come from, and how patterns of coastal use vary across the state. Using aggregated, anonymized mobility data, the work examines visitor origins, frequency of use, regional travel patterns, and differences in visitation over time, providing a much more detailed picture of beach use than traditional attendance counts alone.
Ceto combined mobility data with U.S. Census and other spatial datasets to evaluate visitation at statewide, regional, and individual-beach scales. The analysis also examined access and equity, including the relationship between beach visitation and disadvantaged communities, and developed maps and planning-level metrics that can help agencies understand which communities rely on particular coastal resources and where changes in access or beach conditions may have the greatest public impact.
Services: Mobility data analysis · GIS and spatial analysis · Visitor-origin modeling · Coastal access · Environmental justice · Decision support
RCAMP Socioeconomic Monitoring Framework
BEACON / ESA
2023-2024
Ceto contributed economic and social science expertise to the Regional Coastal Adaptation Monitoring Program (RCAMP), a regional effort to improve long-term coastal monitoring across the Santa Barbara littoral cell. While coastal monitoring programs often focus on physical shoreline change and ecological conditions, RCAMP also incorporates socioeconomic indicators so agencies can better understand how changes to the coast affect the people and communities that use it.
Ceto helped design a framework for tracking beach attendance, recreation, access equity, and economic value over time. The approach integrates multiple data sources, including anonymized mobility data, intercept surveys, focus groups, and GIS-based access and amenity mapping, and includes methods for evaluating carrying capacity, non-market recreational value, and the fiscal implications of beach loss or adaptation. The framework gives regional agencies a more complete basis for evaluating future coastal-management trade-offs.
Services: Monitoring framework design · Visitor-use analysis · Economic valuation · GIS · Coastal access · Environmental justice
Charleston Storm Surge Wall
Economic Review
Southern Environmental Law Center, South Carolina
2022
Ceto was retained by the Southern Environmental Law Center to conduct an independent review of the economic analysis supporting the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ proposed Charleston Peninsula Coastal Storm Risk Management Project. The review examined the assumptions, methods, and benefit-cost analysis used to justify a major storm-surge protection project around the Charleston Peninsula.
Ceto evaluated how the analysis treated sea-level rise, tidal flooding, redevelopment assumptions, and the long-term costs and benefits of the proposed project. The review also identified broader considerations that were not fully captured in the Corps’ economic framework, including ecosystem impacts, transportation disruption, tourism, public safety, urban development patterns, and environmental justice. Ceto’s analysis was submitted as formal public comment during the project’s NEPA review process.
Services: Independent economic review · Benefit-cost analysis · Climate risk · Regulatory analysis · Environmental justice · Expert technical support
Oceano Dunes OHV Economic Peer Review
California
2021
Ceto conducted an independent economic review of a prior analysis of off-highway vehicle recreation at Oceano Dunes State Vehicular Recreation Area. The review was prepared in the context of California Coastal Commission permitting and mitigation discussions concerning recreation, visitor spending, and impacts to environmentally sensitive habitat.
Ceto examined the assumptions used to estimate regional economic impacts, including how visitor spending and recreation losses were treated if OHV use were reduced. The review emphasized the importance of accounting for visitor substitution, non-market recreational value, feasible alternative recreation locations, and the economic value of protecting or restoring sensitive dune habitat. The analysis provided an independent assessment of how recreational and environmental trade-offs should be considered in regulatory decision-making.
Services: Economic peer review · Recreation economics · Non-market valuation · Regulatory analysis · Alternatives analysis · Habitat and public-benefit evaluation
The Dunes at Half Moon Bay Coastal
Access Analysis
Half Moon Bay, California
2021
Ceto prepared an independent assessment of a proposed resort development in Half Moon Bay, focusing on whether the project would meaningfully expand coastal access for lower- and middle-income visitors. The review considered the project in the context of the California Coastal Act’s public-access goals and evaluated whether the proposed mix of visitor-serving accommodations would provide genuinely inclusive access to the coast.
Ceto identified opportunities to strengthen the project’s public benefits through more affordable lodging, greater hostel capacity, access to cooking and laundry facilities, and recreational spaces that would be equally available to all guests. The analysis also recommended preserving visitor-serving land-use flexibility so the site could continue to support a broader range of coastal-access needs over time.
Services: Coastal access analysis · Affordability analysis · Coastal Act policy · Visitor-serving planning · Equity analysis · Independent technical review